optionvol-NBC-Bay-Area

GOL is trading $4.06, down 3.6% with IV30™ up 15.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (Gol) is a Brazil-based holding company primarily engaged in the passenger air transportation sector. The Company is involved in the provision of scheduled and non-scheduled passenger air transportation services, as well as cargo and mail bags freight air transportation.

For the final blog of the week I decided go a little spec -- very unusual order flow in some upside calls in a Brazilian ADR. Let's have some fun looking at this order flow and imagining... what if?... And I promise you, it's not trivial... How not trivial?... How about 10,000 puts sold to purchase 12,000 OTM calls in a name that averages 29 total contracts a day without those large prints.

GOL has traded 4,005 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 329. The entire volume has occurred in the Aug 5 calls. From what I can tell, these look like purchases in entirety (but we'll know when we see Monday's OI). Check out the the Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots below and then I'll show you something that takes this from odd to... well, to blog worthy...





The Options Tab (below) illustrates a few things:

1. The calls are likely at least in part opening (compare OI to volume).

2. The existing OI in the Aug 5 calls is 2000. All of that opened on 6-22-2012, meaning that the trades occurred on 6-21-2012. As far as I can tell, those are all purchases. I've included the OI chart from LVP below for those calls.



3. The Jul 5 calls have an existing OI of 6,139. 6,062 of that OI opened on 6-21-2012, meaning that the trades occurred on 6-20-2012. Those also look like purchases. I've included the OI chart from LVP below for those calls as well.



So, what I'm sayin' is that in a company that averages ~300 contracts traded a day, more than 8,000 OTM calls were purchased in the front two months in a two day period. Then, two weeks later (i.e. today), another 4,000 have been purchased. Unlike the prior two call purchase days, the stock volume today is actually below average (~50% of the three month average as of ~3pm EST).

But wait, it gets better... Look at that OI in the Oct 5 puts. I see those trading in a single day on one print on 5-17-2012 @ $0.75 against an NBBO of $0.70 x $1.00. I've included the Day's biggest trades snap from 5-17-2012, below.



So what we see is 10,000 ITM puts sold to fund 12,000 OTM calls purchased in a name that other than those trades averages 29 total contracts a day.  Stated otherwise, the OTM call purchases (6,000 on each line) each represent ~21,000% of total daily average volume with those three days taken out of the average.  The puts sold represent ~34,000% of the total daily average volume.

Just to throw a little more fire in the already raging flame, check out the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



All I really care about is that horizontal yellow line I drew in. That line represents the 52 wk high in this stock which is $12.79. So, yeah, the stock's seen a higher price than $4... A lot higher...

Of course, this could be a short stock holder covering with calls (and short puts), so then this would be kind of trivial...


Happy Friday.

DISCLOSURE:  It's been a slow trading week so I decided to buy some of these calls -- pretty much the worst reason to trade ever.  In any case, I bought some of the Aug calls for small after I posted this.

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FMCN is trading $22.33, down 0.3% with IV30™ down 1.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Focus Media Holding Limited (Focus Media) is a multi-platform digital media company, operating liquid crystal display (LCD) display network in the People’s Republic of China using audiovisual digital displays in commercial and residential locations.

This is a depressed vol note on a Chinese stock that has gapped several times this year and has demonstrated both substantial firm specific and systematic (China) risk, yet... I found FMCN using a real-time custom scan that hunts for low vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $10
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile LTE 10
IV30™ - HV180™ LTE -7
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is depressed to the long-term stock movement (HV180™) was well as its own history. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume) and minimum level of vol so the examination is more interesting.

The FMCN Charts Tab is included for the last year, below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, I've highlighted several large stock moves. I've included a table (below) that summarizes the stock moves and some of the news surrounding them.

1. 9-22-2011: Stock down 9.6% from $30.43 to $27.52.

2. 9-28-2011: to 9-30-2012: Stock down 32.3% from $24.88 to $16.84.
Systematic Risk

---
What: Some days, it just doesn't pay to be associated with China. Thursday, investors in industries as far afield as luxury retailing, including Coach (NYSE: COH ) and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF ) , saw their stocks crushed. The culprit: worries that China's rising middle class might take a tighter grip on their wallets as manufacturing growth stagnates. Meanwhile, stocks tied more directly into the Chinese economy suffered even worse. Take advertising powerhouse Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN ) -- down more than 18% in the day's trading.

So what: If worries about a contracting Chinese manufacturing sector hurt Coach and Tiffany, they'd logically hurt the kinds of firms that advertise their products, too. Focus Media is one such company, and it appears to have become a favorite of short sellers betting against the company. According to one source, options trading against the stock Thursday was more than 10 times its usual daily average.

Source: The Motley Fool via Yahoo! Finance; Focus Media Got Crushed: What You Need to Know, written by Rich Smith.
----


3. 11-21-2012: Stock down 39.5% from $25.50 to $15.43.
Firm Specific Risk
---
Focus Media halted after plunging 62% following Muddy Waters report (9.57 -15.92) -Update

Source: Provided by Briefing.com (www.briefing.com)
---

4. 3-27-2012 to 3-29-2012: Stock down 13.2% from $27.78 to $24.10

The basic takeaway here is that FMCN can gap and has gapped frequently -- usually to the downside and not necessarily due to an earnings report. The stock seems to have particularly high systematic risk (with China) and certainly has a non-trivial amount of firm specific risk (see reaction to Muddy Waters' report). Yet, we see low vol...

On the vol side, we can see a few things:
1. Today, the vol is depressed in triplicate to its own history, the long-term historical realized vol and the short-term historical realized vol. The 52 wk range in IV30™ for FMCN is [39.27%, 182.95%], putting the current level in just the 8th percentile. The vol comps at present are:

IV30™: 51.62%
HV20™: 54.23%
HV180™: 84.65%

2. The implied has been much higher and can spike on big moves.

3. When the stock gaps, the implied tends to track the HV20™ -- kinda the same thing as #2, but in English, when news comes out, it rarely lowers vol (which would be normal), but rather expands vol.

Let's turn to the Skew Tab to examine the line-by-line and month-to-month vols.



We can see that the skew shapes are pretty normal, even pretty. We can also see that the ATM vols monotonically increase from the front to the back. The next earnings release should be after Aug expiry, so Oct should be elevated to the front two months. In English, while the vol levels right now are quite compelling, the skew in and of itself is kinda blah.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the vols by expiry are 48.02%, 54.41% and 59.41% for Jul, Aug and Oct, respectively. Given the annual range in IV30™, the propensity for FMCN to gap and more holistically the risk tied into China via the EuroZone (and it's own "stuff"), this was one name that I certainly did not expect to see showing up on a depressed vol scan.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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CS closed at $18.22, down 2.0% with IV30™ down 2.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Credit Suisse Group AG (Credit Suisse) is a global financial services company. The Company operates in three segments: Private Banking, Investment Banking and Asset Management. In Private Banking, it offers advice and a range of financial solutions to private, corporate and institutional clients.

This is an interesting vol note with earnings approaching. I found CS using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for low vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $7
IV30™ - HV20™ LTE -8 GTE -40
HV180™ - IV30™ GTE 7
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 32

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol® Pro.



The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is depressed both to the recent stock movement (HV20™) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180™). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not purchasing depressed IV30™ relative to HV20 simply because of a large earnings move.

The CS Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see how the stock was trading at ~$30 in mid-March and is now trading in the high teens. In fact, since 3-19-2012 when the stock closed at $29.69, CS is down 38.6%. The 52 wk range in stock price is [$16.95, $38.08].

On the vol side, we can see how the implied has been dipping just as the short-term historical realized vol has been rising. In English, as the stock has been moving the implied vol has been dropping. The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [26.40%, 83.49%], putting the current level in the 22nd percentile. As of right now the vol comps are:

IV30™: 39.29%
HV20™: 58.23%
HV180™: 48.19%

So, IV30™ is depressed relative to the short-term and long-term realized movement of the stock (and thus the custom scan trigger). But there's another extra something special here that made this one interesting.

Let's look to the Skew Tab to examine the month-to-month and line-by-line vols.



We can see that Jul is depressed to both Aug and Sep. The next earnings release for CS is due out in the Aug cycle (in late Jul), so a vol diff makes sense. But when looking more closely at the actual values, the difference is pretty small.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see that the monthly vols for Jul and Aug are 38.57% and 39.91%, respectively. Note that ~40% for Jul would be in the 23rd percentile for IV30™ and it has a vol event (earnings). Odd that a large European investment bank with earnings due out in a month would demonstrate vol in the lower quartile of its own history (annual)... right?

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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MAKO is trading $25.41, down 2.1% with IV30™ up 7.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is included below.



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MAKO Surgical Corp. (MAKO) is a medical device company that markets its robotic arm solution and orthopedic implants for orthopedic procedures called MAKOplasty. The Company offers MAKOplasty, a surgical solution that enables orthopedic surgeons to treat patient specific, osteoarthritic disease.

This is a vol note, specifically rising vol. I found MAKO using the real-time custom scan that searches for high vols relative to the short-term and long-term historical realized vol.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $7 and LTE $70
IV30™ - HV20™ LTE 10
HV180™ - IV30™ LTE -8
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
Industry isNot Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 10 and LTE 60

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated both to the recent stock movement (HV20™) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180™). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated IV30™ simply because earnings are approaching.

The MAKO Charts Tab (six months) is included below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see the large stock drop on 5-8-2012 off of earnings released the prior day, AMC. The stock dropped from $41.40 to $26.27 on that single day (down 37%) and continued to fall for the next several days down to $21.29 on 5-14-2012 (total drop off 49%). Here's a news snippet covering that drop:

---
What: Shares of medical device company MAKO Surgical (Nasdaq: MAKO ) sank a staggering 35% on Tuesday after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: MAKO's stock has risen nicely in 2012, but lower-than-expected first-quarter sales -- $19.6 million versus the consensus of $23.7 million -- coupled with a full-year guidance cut is forcing Mr. Market to sober up quickly. While management's outlook isn't drastically lower, investors are nervous that slowing hip utilization trends set the company up for even more misses down the road.

Source: The Motley Fool via Yahoo! Finance; Why MAKO Surgical Shares Got Whacked, written by Brian D. Pacampara.
---

Since then the stock has found a sort of quiet period, finding an equilibrium (at least temporarily) in the $25 range.

On the vol side, we can see how the implied is now elevated to both the short-term and long-term historical realized vols. The vol comps as of this writing are:

IV30™: 84.11%
HV20™: 53.79%
HV180™: 75.68%

Due to the abrupt spike in HV20™ from the earnings gap, that vol chart doesn't do a great job of illustrating the recent rise in IV30™. To help visualize the implied's move of late, I've included a six month chart of just IV30™, below.



It's that recent rise in vol that really caught my attention.

Let's turn to the Skew Tab, below.



We can see that Aug shows the highest vol in the ATM options. The next earnings release for MAKO is due out in the Aug cycle. I do note that the OTM puts in Jul are priced higher than Aug (in terms of vol).

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 80.38%, 87.42% and 72.06%, respectively for Jul, Aug and Nov. Ultimately, there's a lot of speculation with this stock -- it's small and sales are small but it is seen by some as a revolutionary firm. High vol makes sense, but I'm not sure what has caused the vol to rise so abruptly of late other than a class action lawsuit deadline. The class action surrounds the stock drop and purported misrepresentations or failures to disclose information... But I don't think that's really affecting the vol...

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PCYC is trading $57.41, down 3.1% with IV30™ down 0.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Pharmacyclics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing small-molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer and immune mediated diseases. The Company's clinical development and product candidates are small-molecule enzyme inhibitors designed to target biochemical pathways involved in human diseases. As of June 30, 2011, it had three drug candidates under clinical development and a number of preclinical molecules.

This is a stock and vol note for a bio-tech that has hit new highs in stock price and IV30™. Let's start with a quick company overview, and then move into the analysis. Here are some snippets from a Seeking Alpha post:

---
Presently, PCYC has three product candidates in clinical development and several molecules in pre-clinical lead optimization. To date, nearly all of the company's resources have been dedicated to the research and development of its products, and has yet to generate any commercial revenues from the sale of its products. The company spends significant sums of money on research and development, pre-clinic testing and clinical trials, and is also subject to various regulatory and marketing approvals. The company has been showing losses over the last three financial years with no expectations of profitability until the successful development of its products and subsequent approvals.

[...]
Ibrutinib is an orally active selective irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) that the company is developing for the treatment of patients with B-cell malignancies (lymphoma or leukemia). Trial results have confirmed the superiority of ibrutinib in treating B-cell cancers, including chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). A Phase I dose escalation study evaluating the safety and tolerability of single-agent ibrutinib has been completed in patients with relapsed B-cell malignancies. Results were impressive, with Ibrutinib demonstrating a favorable safety profile and an evidence of anti-tumor activity.

With Phase II trials ongoing and positive results coming out for ibrutnib, PCYC anticipates starting Phase III registration trials by the end of 2012. It is widely agreed that it is one of the most attractive drugs in development, given the robust clinical activity demonstrated in several hematologic malignancies as well as an equally impressive safety profile.

Source: Seeking Alpha via Yahoo! Finance; Pharmacyclics Inc.: A Stock Up 400% This Year, A $4 Billion Company , written by Qineqt: Team of investment professionals including former hedge fund manager, trader and analyst at top tier $10 billion hedge fund. Members include investment professionals who oversaw research and trading organization of 50+.
---

I have verified that the company deos indeed carry a nearly $4 billion market cap on revenue of ~$8 million for FY 2011.

Let's turn to the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see the incredible run over the last seven weeks. On 5-14-2012, the stock closed at $26.94 and, as of this writing, is up more than 113% since that time. A year ago the stock closed at $10.48 and two years ago it was trading at $6.85. In English, the stock is up 448% over the last year and 738% over the last two years, with a large portion of those moves realized since mid May. Wow... The 52 wk range in stock price is [$8.65, $59.29], so the stock reached its annual high yesterday.

On the vol side, we can see how the implied has rocketed up of late, moving from 58.49% to 85.18% since 5-14-2012, or a ~45% rise in the implied. The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [45.47%, 85.78%], so the vol is also at an annual high. In fact, the level of the implied is now at its highest level since 12-2010. I bring this up a lot, but this is another example of a rising stock (abruptly rising, one could say) that also demonstrates rising vol (risk).

What's so interesting about the stock and vol movement is that there has not really been one "big day." Normally we see vol rise and then on some day of reckoning (news), the stock moves abruptly and the vol (risk) finally comes in. The run in PCYC feels like speculation, but not so much on a single impending FDA decision, but more on a momentum and "longish"-term potential. In any case, it's very odd to see vol rise this quickly with stock and have no real "market moving news event" impending. In fact, Capital IQ forecasts the next earnings release in mid Sep (source: Briefing.com (www.briefing.com). Weird... Very weird...

Let's turn to the Skew Tab to examine the line-byline and month-to-month vols.



We can see a monotonic vol increase from the back tot he front, reflecting greater risk in the near-term than the intermediate. Keep in mind that the green curve includes an earnings release. Even more interesting, if there is in fact an upcoming FDA ruling or trial result or "something," it appears that it is due out in the Jul expiry, and thus the elevated vol. I can't imagine what the stock would do if the news was bad... OK, I can imagine it, it's just a colloquialism.

The shape of the skew is also kinda normal -- the OTM puts are more expensive (in terms of vol) than the ATM strikes and the OTM calls. I do note that Nov is rather flat when compared to the front two expiries.

To learn more about skew, you can read this post: Understanding Option Skew -- What it is and Why it Exists .

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab, for completeness.



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 87.80%, 82.05% and 71.87%, respectively for Jul, Aug and Nov. Looking further out, we can see that the expiries in 2012 (and later) are all priced in the 60's (in terms of vol). Hmm...

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--- DISCLAIMER --This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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BBY is trading $21.92, up 4.6% with IV30™ up 6.4%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is included below.



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Best Buy Co., Inc., incorporated in 1996, is a multinational retailer of consumer electronics, computing and mobile phone products, entertainment products, appliances and related services.

Before we get to the analysis, let's look to the news today that's driving the vol up:

---

(Reuters) - Best Buy Co Inc's (BBY.N) former Chairman Richard Schulze is not expected to present a buyout or other proposal to the company's board anytime soon, a person familiar with the situation said.

Media reports said Schulze was close to presenting an offer for the consumer electronics chain. Discussions around a leveraged buyout of the company are still in the early stages, the person said.

Source: Reuters via Yahoo! Finance; No bid by Best Buy ex-chairman to come soon: source, reporting By Nadia Damouni; editing by Gerald E. McCormick.
---

Hmmm...

BBY showed up on the real-time custom scan that searches for high vols relative to the short-term and long-term historical realized vol.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $7 and LTE $70
IV30™ - HV20™ LTE 10
HV180™ - IV30™ LTE -8
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
Industry isNot Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 10 and LTE 60

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated both to the recent stock movement (HV20) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated IV30™ simply because earnings are approaching.

Let's start with the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, I've highlighted the drop from earnings on 3-29-2012 as well as the recent run up. With the move today, the stock is up more than 18% since 6-25-2012. The 52 wk range in stock price for BBY is [$17.39, $31.71], with a 2-year high of $44.86.

On the vol side, I've highlighted the awesome vol rise into last earnings on 5-21-2012, when the stock moved just $0.29. But, most importantly, I've highlighted the recent vol rise. Since 6-25-2012, while the stock has been up 18%, the vol has risen 32%. In English, the risk reflected by the options has outpaced the move up in stock. And, although I mention this occasionally it's worth stating again, vol does not necessarily go down as a stock rises. With the move in the implied, the vol comps are now:

IV30™: 56.81%
HV20™: 45.67%
HV180™: 39.14%

It's those levels that triggered the custom scan. The 52 wk range in IV30™ for BBY is [25.58%, 70.98%], putting the current level in the 65th percentile.

Let's turn to the Skew Tab, below.



I've included just the font two months this time. Aug is elevated to Jul ATM due to an earnings announcement expected in the Aug expiry (but after Jul). I do note the OTM skew for both calls and puts in Jul is above that for Aug, though Aug has the earnings vol. This poses an interesting analysis surrounding a calendar spread of some sort.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab* (below).



Across the top we can see that Jul vol is priced to 55.57% while Aug is priced to 58.47%. Looking at some random OTM options, we can see that Jul 19 puts are priced to ~65% vol vs 60% in Aug (with earnings), so a sort of backwards vol pricing.

*NB: The options tab snapshot was based on an underlying price of ~$22.28.

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WFR is trading $2.60, up 19.8% with IV30™ up 17.0%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (MEMC) is engaged in the development, manufacture, and sale of silicon wafers. Through SunEdison, MEMC is a developer of solar energy projects. The Company operates in two business segments: Semiconductor Materials and Solar Energy.

This is a stock and vol note in the largest NYSE gainer this morning. Let's start with the news, then move to order flow, stock and vol. Here's a news snippet from today:

---
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR), the second-largest U.S. polysilicon maker, gained the most in almost six months after announcing the sale of four projects in Europe with a total capacity of 98 megawatts.

[...]

MEMC completed sales in the second quarter of 60 megawatts of solar farms in Bulgaria and 38 megawatts in Italy, the St. Peters, Missouri-based company said in a statement today. Terms weren’t disclosed.

Source: Bloomberg via Yahoo! Finance; MEMC Gains on Sale of 98 Megawatts of Projects in Europe, written by Justin Doom.
---

That snippet doesn't capture the landscape, though. According to an article I read on Seeking Alpha, the company has been dire straits. Here's a little more news:

---
Nevada Solar Plant Sold

Late last week, WFR reached a deal to sell its Nevada solar plant to Southern Company (SO) Chairman, President and CEO Thomas A. Fanning and Turner Renewable Energy founder Ted Turner. While the terms of the deal were not announced, the sale should help bolster WFR's capital position.

Debt
One of the biggest challenges facing WFR is the debt load. Currently, WFR has $2.1 billion in debt against $588 million in equity. Given the difficulties facing the company's solar business, the debt to equity ratio makes WFR a risky play.

Short Interest
Short interest in WFR currently stands at roughly 25.12 million or 12.3% of the float. It is possible that some shorts are starting to lock in gains at these levels as WFR has been a real winner for the short sellers. However, it should be noted that the high short interest does create the potential for a short squeeze which seems to be playing out on Monday following recent news.

Source: Seeking Alpha via yahoo! Finance; MEMC Electronic Materials Leads NYSE, What You Need To Know , written by Sammy Pollack.
---

It's interesting that the vol has risen off of this news, implying either that the risk of bankruptcy / default was not the only concern here, or that whatever risk this contract(s) has alleviated has been replaced with new risk. More on that in a sec. Lets turn to order flow.

The company has traded over 11,000 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 3,395, with calls trading on an 8.1:1 ratio to puts. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates the action. It looks like the Aug 2.5 calls are showing the greatest volume with over 5,000 having traded in the first two hours on OI of just 151. The action looks to be long those calls, substantially, IMHO.



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



We can see that Aug is substantially elevated to Oct. Last year earnings were released on 8-3-2011, so it's a good bet that an earnings release will occur in the Aug expiry but outside of Jul. That's likely the reason for the elevated vol. Other than that the skew shapes look pretty "normal," with a slight note that the Jul 3 calls are trading at higher vol than the ATM strike, which is sort of backwards and points to the buying pressure today on the call side.

Finally, the Charts Tab (six months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see that just ~five months ago this was a $6 stock. We can also see that after the last two earnings reports ("E" icon) the stock dropped on the news, and continued to drop after. The 52 wk range in stock price is [$1.44, $8.64].

On the vol side, we can see how the implied was in fact ~140% less than two months ago, then trailed back down to the ~90% level. The news today has pushed vol back above 100%, but well below the annual high. The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [46.69%, 138.88%], putting the current value in the 62nd percentile. As I mentioned earlier, the rising vol off of this news reflects increased uncertainty (risk), so whatever risk has been alleviated wrt liquidity / default / bankruptcy, has been overshadowed by risk of... something else.

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